10 Reasons Why the Housing Market Will Begin Long Awaited Upswing on June 30, 2009
James J. Cramer, co-founder of TheStreet.com, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money”, and regular contributor to New York Magazine, declared in a recent column that the housing market will begin its long awaited upswing on June 30, 2009.
A self-described “bear” on housing in the past year, Cramer offers 10 reasons why “everyone who now thinks there’s no end in sight to weakening home prices will look like a fool in nine months and will miss the best opportunity to buy since the 1987-1991 real-estate crash.”
It’s a good article and worth reading – if only to get a fresh, and perhaps contrarian view, of what those of us in the trenches have been saying on daily basis – it’s a buyers market.
And now, to paraphrase Mr. Cramer’s 10 reasons:
- By next June we won’t be building enough homes to accommodate demand and the gap between supply and demand won’t be made up by unsold inventory.
- The $300 billion in FHA loans authorized by Congress will dramatically reduce the number of foreclosed – and available – homes.
- Bargins – with home values dropping 25% to 50% – homes will be irresistible to millions of potential buyers who have stayed on the sidelines.
- Wall Street hiring and payrolls will contract drastically – helping New York, historically the last hold out, reach its bottom.
- A steep decline in mortgage rates thanks to repackaged loans from Freddie and Fannie
- The bulk of the 2-and-28 loans will have moved through the system
- Four million babies are born each year, vastly exceeding the nation’s death rate – we are still a growing nation!
- The biggest problem areas are now restricted to three states – Florida, Arizona and California – and the rest of the country has begun to stabilize.
- These same three areas bottomed out this summer and the first to fall are the first to return.
Mr. Cramer’s parting advice: “If you’re a buyer, use the time between now and next June to scout in which neighborhoods you may want to buy. On June 29, call your broker.”
My advice: Don’t wait until June 29. Call me now, at 703.927.4554 and let’s start looking for your new home.