10 Reasons Why the Housing Market Will Begin Long Awaited Upswing on June 30, 2009

James J. Cramer, co-founder of TheStreet.com, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money”, and regular contributor to New York Magazine, declared in a recent column that the housing market will begin its long awaited upswing on June 30, 2009.

A self-described “bear” on housing in the past year, Cramer offers 10 reasons why “everyone who now thinks there’s no end in sight to weakening home prices will look like a fool in nine months and will miss the best opportunity to buy since the 1987-1991 real-estate crash.”

It’s a good article and worth reading – if only to get a fresh, and perhaps contrarian view, of what those of us in the trenches have been saying on daily basis – it’s a buyers market.

And now, to paraphrase Mr. Cramer’s 10 reasons:

  1. By next June we won’t be building enough homes to accommodate demand and the gap between supply and demand won’t be made up by unsold inventory.
  2. The $300 billion in FHA loans authorized by Congress will dramatically reduce the number of foreclosed  – and available – homes.
  3. Bargins – with home values dropping 25% to 50%  – homes will be irresistible to millions of potential buyers who have stayed on the sidelines.
  4. Wall Street hiring and payrolls will contract drastically – helping New York, historically the last hold out, reach its bottom.
  5. A steep decline in mortgage rates thanks to repackaged loans from Freddie and Fannie
  6. The bulk of the 2-and-28 loans will have moved through the system
  7. Four million babies are born each year, vastly exceeding the nation’s death rate – we are still a growing nation!
  8. Immigration.
  9. The biggest problem areas are now restricted to three states – Florida, Arizona and California – and the rest of the country has begun to stabilize.
  10. These same three areas bottomed out this summer and the first to fall are the first to return.

Mr. Cramer’s parting advice:  “If you’re a buyer, use the time between now and next June to scout in which neighborhoods you may want to buy.  On June 29, call your broker.”

My advice:   Don’t wait until June 29.  Call me now, at 703.927.4554 and let’s start looking for your new home.

Michael